2012 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

20·18

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -13

Total

47

Model margin

+5.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.259EPA / play+0.176
  • 35.1%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.282
  • -0.242EPA / rush+0.031
  • 6.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -8.47CPOE+1.48
  • 25.9%Third-down rate48.4%
  • 36.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
  • 0.79Points / drive2.71
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15NE @ ARI17–30ARI
2022 · W14NE @ ARI27–13NE
2020 · W12ARI @ NE17–20NE
2016 · W1NE @ ARI23–21NE
2008 · W16ARI @ NE7–47NE
2004 · W2NE @ ARI23–12NE
1999 · W8NE @ ARI27–3NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NE
ARIQ1 15:001260Field goal3–0
NEQ1 8:4210Turnover3–0
ARIQ1 8:3132Field goal6–0
NEQ1 7:421142Field goal6–3
ARIQ1 2:2238Punt6–3
NEQ1 0:27421Punt6–3
ARIQ2 14:4042Punt6–3
NEQ2 12:40635Field goal6–6
ARIQ2 9:08727Turnover6–6
NEQ2 6:043-12Punt6–6
ARIQ2 4:2639Punt6–6
NEQ2 2:59743Punt6–6
NEQ3 15:00647Field goal6–9
ARIQ3 12:53429Punt6–9
NEQ3 10:4931Punt6–9
ARIQ3 9:4132Touchdown13–9
NEQ3 8:521241Punt13–9
ARIQ3 2:461070Touchdown20–9
NEQ4 14:00537Punt20–9
ARIQ4 11:54522Punt20–9
NEQ4 7:56529Field goal20–12
ARIQ4 6:4532Punt20–12
NEQ4 5:421182Touchdown20–18
ARIQ4 2:06510Turnover20–18
NEQ4 1:01521Missed field goal20–18
ARIQ4 0:0100End of half20–18

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb15/2714010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells14443.10
Kevin Kolb5173.41
Ryan Williams10131.30
LaRod Stephens-Howling2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap59620
Chris Wells11240
Early Doucet34210
LaRod Stephens-Howling12100
Ryan Williams22100
Rob Housler1170
Larry Fitzgerald1540
Andre Roberts1121

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4631611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley18713.90
Danny Woodhead8182.30
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker511950
Rob Gronkowski69751
Brandon Lloyd813600
Julian Edelman56500
Stevan Ridley34240
Danny Woodhead11120
Aaron Hernandez0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.7%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.53