Closing spread
NE -13
Total
47
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play+0.176
- 35.1%Success rate50.2%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.282
- -0.242EPA / rush+0.031
- 6.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- -8.47CPOE+1.48
- 25.9%Third-down rate48.4%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 0.79Points / drive2.71
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 15/27 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ryan Williams | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/46 | 316 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 5 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 8 | 13 | 60 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.53