2016 · Week 1

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

23·21

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -9

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.128EPA / play-0.005
  • 44.3%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.98CPOE-0.78
  • 47.3%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.89
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15NE @ ARI17–30ARI
2022 · W14NE @ ARI27–13NE
2020 · W12ARI @ NE17–20NE
2012 · W2ARI @ NE20–18ARI
2008 · W16ARI @ NE7–47NE
2004 · W2NE @ ARI23–12NE
1999 · W8NE @ ARI27–3NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00524Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:47983Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 7:34442Punt7–0
NEQ1 6:121158Field goal10–0
ARIQ1 1:00742Punt10–0
NEQ2 12:22628Turnover10–0
ARIQ2 10:261154Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 4:0632Punt10–7
ARIQ2 1:5030Punt10–7
NEQ2 1:24512Punt10–7
ARIQ2 0:151-8End of half10–7
NEQ3 15:00975Touchdown17–7
ARIQ3 10:00610Punt17–7
NEQ3 7:0125Turnover17–7
ARIQ3 6:20533Touchdown17–14
NEQ3 4:291335Field goal20–14
ARIQ4 12:35874Touchdown20–21
NEQ4 9:461266Field goal23–21
ARIQ4 3:441173Missed field goal23–21
NEQ4 0:3600End of half23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo24/3326410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount22703.21
Julian Edelman3165.30
Jimmy Garoppolo4123.00
Brandon Bolden144.00
James White144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman77660
Chris Hogan34601
Danny Amendola34480
James White57400
Malcolm Mitchell25330
Martellus Bennett35140
Jimmy Garoppolo1130

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer24/3727120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson16895.61
Chris Johnson122.00
Carson Palmer210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald810812
Michael Floyd37610
David Johnson46430
Jermaine Gresham44410
Jaron Brown12180
J.J. Nelson12110
Andre Ellington2280
John Brown1480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.16
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.24