Closing spread
ARI -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play-0.005
- 44.3%Success rate45.3%
- +0.276EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.98CPOE-0.78
- 47.3%Third-down rate40.4%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.47Points / drive1.89
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 24/33 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 22 | 70 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/37 | 271 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 10 | 81 | 2 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.16
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.24