Closing spread
IND -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.084
- 41.4%Success rate38.6%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.207
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- 39.4%Third-down rate35.7%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.88Points / drive1.14
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/35 | 237 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 108 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 16 | 109 | 2 |
| Edgerrin James | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 27/50 | 253 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 16 | 71 | 1 |
| Pete Mitchell | 9 | 13 | 62 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| LeShon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.36