1999 · Week 10

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

27·19

Giants

New York

QB Kent Graham

Giants Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 56°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapGiants
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.084
  • 41.4%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.207
  • 9.5%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 39.4%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.14
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17IND @ NYG33–45NYG
2022 · W17IND @ NYG10–38NYG
2018 · W16NYG @ IND27–28IND
2014 · W9IND @ NYG40–24IND
2010 · W2NYG @ IND14–38IND
2006 · W1IND @ NYG26–21IND
2002 · W16NYG @ IND44–27NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYG
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:3031Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:0334Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:37413Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:37612Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 6:25419Punt0–0
INDQ1 5:031070Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 0:48833Field goal7–3
INDQ2 12:09932Turnover on downs7–3
NYGQ2 7:24937Field goal7–6
INDQ2 2:45413Punt7–6
NYGQ2 1:03513Turnover7–6
INDQ2 0:091-1End of half7–6
NYGQ3 15:001161Turnover7–6
INDQ3 10:25490Touchdown14–6
NYGQ3 9:063-3Punt14–6
INDQ3 7:35630Field goal17–6
NYGQ3 4:244-8Opp touchdown24–6
INDQ3 2:4400Opp touchdown24–6
NYGQ3 2:44880Touchdown24–12
INDQ4 14:17578Field goal27–12
NYGQ4 11:371372Touchdown27–19
INDQ4 6:5030Punt27–19
NYGQ4 5:36327Turnover27–19
INDQ4 4:4737Punt27–19
NYGQ4 3:36839Turnover27–19
INDQ4 1:212-2End of half27–19

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/3523721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James161086.80
Peyton Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison6161092
Edgerrin James55720
Ken Dilger33260
Marcus Pollard33170
Jerome Pathon23100
Terrence Wilkins1530

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham27/5025322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber9576.30
LeShon Johnson5367.20
Kent Graham33010.00
Sean Bennett133.00
Ike Hilliard1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ike Hilliard69780
Amani Toomer516711
Pete Mitchell913621
Joe Jurevicius13180
Tiki Barber46150
LeShon Johnson2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.39
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.36