2002 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

44·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapColts
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.016
  • 41.7%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.138
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate44.5%
  • 44.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.70
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17IND @ NYG33–45NYG
2022 · W17IND @ NYG10–38NYG
2018 · W16NYG @ IND27–28IND
2014 · W9IND @ NYG40–24IND
2010 · W2NYG @ IND14–38IND
2006 · W1IND @ NYG26–21IND
1999 · W10IND @ NYG27–19IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–IND
INDQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:09419Field goal3–0
INDQ1 9:2436Punt3–0
NYGQ1 6:5936Punt3–0
INDQ1 5:36417Punt3–0
NYGQ1 3:1848Punt3–0
INDQ1 2:1410Turnover3–0
NYGQ1 2:05968Touchdown10–0
INDQ2 12:4235Punt10–0
NYGQ2 11:2439Punt10–0
INDQ2 9:42549Punt10–0
NYGQ2 6:52879Turnover10–0
INDQ2 2:25524Punt10–0
NYGQ2 1:2511Turnover10–0
INDQ2 1:1834Field goal10–3
NYGQ2 0:0500End of half10–3
NYGQ3 15:00182Touchdown17–3
INDQ3 14:41620Turnover on downs17–3
NYGQ3 12:17547Touchdown23–3
INDQ3 10:231438Field goal23–6
NYGQ3 5:181054Touchdown30–6
INDQ3 0:11562Touchdown30–12
NYGQ4 13:341153Touchdown37–12
INDQ4 6:45677Touchdown37–20
NYGQ4 4:5100Touchdown37–26
INDQ4 4:50140Touchdown37–27
NYGQ4 4:44447Touchdown44–27
INDQ4 4:00630Turnover44–27
NYGQ4 2:2500Turnover on downs44–27
INDQ4 0:3819End of half44–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins23/2936640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber18603.32
Ron Dayne13463.50
Kerry Collins5-3-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer10122043
Jeremy Shockey781160
Dan Campbell22190
Charles Stackhouse11181
Tiki Barber2450
Ron Dayne1140
Daryl Jones0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning30/4636532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Mungro8212.60
Troy Walters11616.00
Edgerrin James10131.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison10181281
Reggie Wayne661042
Marcus Pollard58690
Troy Walters33350
Qadry Ismail23200
Joe Dean Davenport1270
Edgerrin James3620

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.79