Closing spread
IND -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.016
- 41.7%Success rate44.3%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.138
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- 38.8%Third-down rate44.5%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.46Points / drive1.70
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 23/29 | 366 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Ron Dayne | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 10 | 12 | 204 | 3 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 7 | 8 | 116 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/46 | 365 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Mungro | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 10 | 18 | 128 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 6 | 104 | 2 |
| Marcus Pollard | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79