2022 · Week 17

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Nick Foles

10·38

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NYG -5.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapGiants
  • -0.154EPA / play+0.033
  • 40.3%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.004
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.42CPOE+1.68
  • 33.3%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.02
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17IND @ NYG33–45NYG
2018 · W16NYG @ IND27–28IND
2014 · W9IND @ NYG40–24IND
2010 · W2NYG @ IND14–38IND
2006 · W1IND @ NYG26–21IND
2002 · W16NYG @ IND44–27NYG
1999 · W10IND @ NYG27–19IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYG
INDQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:12832Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:16985Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 2:261281Touchdown3–7
INDQ2 10:38411Punt3–7
NYGQ2 9:101059Touchdown3–14
INDQ2 4:21616Opp touchdown3–21
INDQ2 1:4548Punt3–21
NYGQ2 0:46843Field goal3–24
NYGQ3 15:0015Turnover3–24
INDQ3 14:5331Missed field goal3–24
NYGQ3 13:59662Touchdown3–31
INDQ3 10:401668Touchdown10–31
NYGQ3 2:08855Touchdown10–38
INDQ4 11:57739Punt10–38
NYGQ4 8:361057Turnover on downs10–38
INDQ4 1:56317End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles8/138101
Sam Ehlinger9/146010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss15744.90
Jordan Wilkins6233.80
Sam Ehlinger11212.00
Deon Jackson3103.30
Nick Foles188.00
Parris Campbell111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parris Campbell36520
Michael Pittman68411
Jelani Woods34190
Alec Pierce35150
Jordan Wilkins22140
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Mike Strachan0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/2417720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones11918.32
Matt Breida9596.60
Saquon Barkley12584.80
Gary Brightwell591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richie James77761
Isaiah Hodgins45421
Daniel Bellinger33420
Darius Slayton23140
Matt Breida1180
Saquon Barkley24-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.85
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+4.93