Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.033
- 40.3%Success rate45.0%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.004
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.42CPOE+1.68
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.33Points / drive2.02
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 8/13 | 81 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 9/14 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris Campbell | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Jelani Woods | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/24 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 91 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 7 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.85
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+4.93