Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.088
- 40.6%Success rate41.1%
- -0.025EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.116
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- -5.38CPOE-1.45
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.28
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/38 | 330 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 32 | 125 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 6 | 9 | 122 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 17/23 | 309 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 7 | 8 | 171 | 2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.41