2024 · Week 17

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

33·45

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapGiants
  • -0.045EPA / play-0.088
  • 40.6%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.116
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -5.38CPOE-1.45
  • 37.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.28
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17IND @ NYG10–38NYG
2018 · W16NYG @ IND27–28IND
2014 · W9IND @ NYG40–24IND
2010 · W2NYG @ IND14–38IND
2006 · W1IND @ NYG26–21IND
2002 · W16NYG @ IND44–27NYG
1999 · W10IND @ NYG27–19IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYG
INDQ1 15:00741Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 11:36311Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:28950Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 3:45570Touchdown3–7
INDQ1 1:05635Missed field goal3–7
NYGQ2 13:39556Touchdown3–14
INDQ2 11:32715Field goal6–14
NYGQ2 9:26884Touchdown6–21
INDQ2 5:551470Touchdown13–21
NYGQ2 0:2000End of half13–27
NYGQ3 15:0000Touchdown13–28
INDQ3 14:48770Touchdown20–28
NYGQ3 11:0330Punt20–28
INDQ3 8:48751Turnover on downs20–28
NYGQ3 4:32830Turnover on downs20–28
INDQ3 0:143-1Punt20–28
NYGQ4 14:3734Punt20–28
INDQ4 13:45742Touchdown26–28
NYGQ4 10:53470Touchdown26–35
INDQ4 8:39570Touchdown33–35
NYGQ4 6:381064Touchdown33–42
INDQ4 2:5710Turnover33–42
NYGQ4 2:4635Field goal33–45
INDQ4 2:2033Turnover33–45
NYGQ4 1:5300End of half33–45

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/3833022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor321253.92
Joe Flacco111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce691221
Michael Pittman9101091
Kylen Granson34340
Josh Downs34220
Adonai Mitchell24220
Jonathan Taylor24110
Trey Sermon11100
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock17/2330940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.20593.00
Devin Singletary5214.20
Drew Lock500.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers781712
Wan'Dale Robinson56711
Darius Slayton13321
Tyrone Tracy Jr.23140
Chris Manhertz11120
Devin Singletary1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.41