2010 · Week 2

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

14·38

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapColts
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.095
  • 44.3%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.067
  • 10.7%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +2.60CPOE+3.98
  • 37.0%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.12
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17IND @ NYG33–45NYG
2022 · W17IND @ NYG10–38NYG
2018 · W16NYG @ IND27–28IND
2014 · W9IND @ NYG40–24IND
2006 · W1IND @ NYG26–21IND
2002 · W16NYG @ IND44–27NYG
1999 · W10IND @ NYG27–19IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–IND
INDQ1 15:001285Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 8:1630Punt0–7
INDQ1 6:4831Punt0–7
NYGQ1 5:4638Punt0–7
INDQ1 4:4937Punt0–7
NYGQ1 3:13818Punt0–7
INDQ2 13:57898Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 9:3310Turnover0–14
INDQ2 9:26742Field goal0–17
NYGQ2 5:00731Turnover0–17
INDQ2 1:07845Touchdown0–24
NYGQ2 0:09112End of half0–24
NYGQ3 15:00887Touchdown7–24
INDQ3 10:44529Punt7–24
NYGQ3 7:152-1Opp touchdown7–31
NYGQ3 6:27731Punt7–31
INDQ3 2:56631Punt7–31
NYGQ4 14:5137Punt7–31
INDQ4 13:13960Touchdown7–38
NYGQ4 9:113-2Punt7–38
INDQ4 8:00517Punt7–38
NYGQ4 4:44735Turnover on downs7–38
INDQ4 2:102-2Turnover13–38
NYGQ4 1:52131Touchdown14–38
INDQ4 1:4600End of half14–38

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning13/2416121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw17895.20
D.J. Ware2157.50
Brandon Jacobs482.00
Eli Manning166.00
Mario Manningham122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham46751
Hakeem Nicks25381
Steve Smith49350
Bear Pascoe1170
D.J. Ware1150
Travis Beckum1110
Ahmad Bradshaw0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/2625530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai20924.60
Donald Brown16694.31
Mike Hart242.00
Devin Moore2-2-1.00
Peyton Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne79961
Dallas Clark57831
Austin Collie44251
Joseph Addai23210
Donald Brown11190
Pierre Garcon12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.79