Closing spread
IND -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.095
- 44.3%Success rate47.2%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.7%Explosive rate6.7%
- +2.60CPOE+3.98
- 37.0%Third-down rate44.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.81Points / drive2.12
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/24 | 161 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 17 | 89 | 5.2 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/26 | 255 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Mike Hart | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Devin Moore | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79