Closing spread
IND -3
Total
51
Model margin
+2.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play-0.014
- 45.9%Success rate41.2%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.147
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.10CPOE+0.79
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.5%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.01Points / drive1.78
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 25/46 | 354 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/52 | 359 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Cox | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 11 | 156 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 4 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| Corey Washington | 4 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 8 | 25 | 1 |
| Andre Williams | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.44