2014 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

40·24

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

51

Model margin

+2.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapGiants
  • +0.029EPA / play-0.014
  • 45.9%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.147
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.10CPOE+0.79
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.78
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17IND @ NYG33–45NYG
2022 · W17IND @ NYG10–38NYG
2018 · W16NYG @ IND27–28IND
2010 · W2NYG @ IND14–38IND
2006 · W1IND @ NYG26–21IND
2002 · W16NYG @ IND44–27NYG
1999 · W10IND @ NYG27–19IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:421163Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 7:07422Punt3–0
INDQ1 5:13513Punt3–0
NYGQ1 3:3533Punt3–0
INDQ1 1:5634Punt3–0
NYGQ1 0:5632Punt3–0
INDQ2 14:42353Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 13:38643Punt10–0
INDQ2 11:4633Punt10–0
NYGQ2 10:451045Field goal10–3
INDQ2 7:07861Field goal13–3
NYGQ2 3:3246Punt13–3
INDQ2 2:00530Field goal16–3
NYGQ2 1:0738Punt16–3
INDQ2 0:321-9End of half16–3
INDQ3 15:00877Touchdown23–3
NYGQ3 11:50584Touchdown23–10
INDQ3 9:48985Touchdown30–10
NYGQ3 6:0936Turnover30–10
INDQ3 5:2024Touchdown37–10
NYGQ3 4:3139Punt37–10
INDQ3 2:57745Field goal40–10
NYGQ4 13:231180Touchdown40–17
INDQ4 8:5537Punt40–17
NYGQ4 6:111190Touchdown40–24
INDQ4 3:1939Punt40–24
NYGQ4 2:5249Turnover on downs40–24
INDQ4 2:294-2Punt40–24
NYGQ4 0:07117End of half40–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck25/4635440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw7507.10
Trent Richardson7334.70
Dan Herron8101.30
Andrew Luck252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener411771
T.Y. Hilton36711
Reggie Wayne410701
Dwayne Allen45481
Hakeem Nicks34440
Ahmad Bradshaw35290
Trent Richardson2290
Dan Herron1140
Donte Moncrief1120

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/5235920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Cox22713.50
Andre Williams12221.81
Peyton Hillis4205.00
Eli Manning11818.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.8111560
Peyton Hillis56500
Rueben Randle411490
Corey Washington46481
Larry Donnell48251
Andre Williams11240
Preston Parker1670
Kevin Ogletree0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.44