2018 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

27·28

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -10

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapColts
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.059
  • 39.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.097
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.30CPOE+0.63
  • 36.5%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.25
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–3 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17IND @ NYG33–45NYG
2022 · W17IND @ NYG10–38NYG
2014 · W9IND @ NYG40–24IND
2010 · W2NYG @ IND14–38IND
2006 · W1IND @ NYG26–21IND
2002 · W16NYG @ IND44–27NYG
1999 · W10IND @ NYG27–19IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–IND
INDQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYGQ1 14:051170Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 8:1139Punt7–0
NYGQ1 6:10983Touchdown14–0
INDQ1 1:41849Turnover14–0
NYGQ2 12:2735Punt14–0
INDQ2 10:571278Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 4:09853Field goal17–7
INDQ2 1:10626Punt17–7
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half17–7
NYGQ3 15:00613Punt17–7
INDQ3 11:49785Touchdown17–14
NYGQ3 7:38885Touchdown24–14
INDQ3 3:42869Touchdown24–21
NYGQ3 0:321166Field goal27–21
INDQ4 9:20836Punt27–21
NYGQ4 6:3447Punt27–21
INDQ4 3:431044Touchdown27–28
NYGQ4 0:55311Turnover27–28
INDQ4 0:2300End of half27–28

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/3330911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley21432.01
Evan Engram22613.00
Wayne Gallman2126.00
Corey Coleman155.00
Eli Manning200.01
Sterling Shepard1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard671130
Evan Engram66870
Saquon Barkley57340
Bennie Fowler13260
Rhett Ellison22180
Scott Simonson33161
Cody Latimer11100
Corey Coleman0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck31/4735721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack12342.81
Andrew Luck2136.50
Nyheim Hines221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton781380
Chester Rogers77541
Dontrelle Inman45461
Zach Pascal47410
Nyheim Hines45410
Eric Ebron35280
Ryan Grant1350
Marlon Mack1340
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.92