Closing spread
IND -10
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.059
- 39.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.30CPOE+0.63
- 36.5%Third-down rate50.5%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.89Points / drive2.25
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. IND are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/33 | 309 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 21 | 43 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 7 | 113 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 31/47 | 357 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 8 | 138 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 7 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92