Closing spread
IND -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play-0.017
- 51.4%Success rate45.6%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.017
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.70CPOE-3.95
- 56.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 2.54Points / drive1.77
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:07 | 9 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 0:48 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| NYG | Q2 12:23 | 11 | 83 | Missed field goal | 6–0 |
| IND | Q2 7:12 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| NYG | Q2 2:25 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| IND | Q2 0:32 | 4 | 31 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| IND | Q3 7:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–14 |
| NYG | Q3 6:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–14 |
| IND | Q3 3:54 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| NYG | Q3 1:44 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| IND | Q3 1:31 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 23–14 |
| NYG | Q4 13:13 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| IND | Q4 8:01 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 23–21 |
| NYG | Q4 4:58 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 23–21 |
| IND | Q4 3:51 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 26–21 |
| NYG | Q4 1:12 | 4 | 28 | End of half | 26–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/41 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/34 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32