Closing spread
IND -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play-0.017
- 51.4%Success rate45.6%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.017
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.70CPOE-3.95
- 56.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 2.54Points / drive1.77
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–3 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 57.6 points. NYG are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/41 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/34 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 18 | 110 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32