Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.110
- 42.4%Success rate35.3%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.177
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.5%Third-down rate29.7%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.98Points / drive1.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.053EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 21/27 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Lewis | 2/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Fred Lane | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Lewis | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 7 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Kinchen | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 29/45 | 259 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 9 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 8 | 10 | 72 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 14 | 55 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.14