1999 · Week 11

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Steve Beuerlein

31·17

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -5.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.110
  • 42.4%Success rate35.3%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.177
  • 9.7%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 38.5%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.053EPA / play allowed+0.100

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CAR @ CLE18–21CLE
2022 · W1CLE @ CAR26–24CLE
2018 · W14CAR @ CLE20–26CLE
2014 · W16CLE @ CAR13–17CAR
2010 · W12CAR @ CLE23–24CLE
2006 · W5CLE @ CAR12–20CAR
2002 · W13CAR @ CLE13–6CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CLE
CARQ1 15:00749Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 12:04648Missed field goal3–0
CARQ1 9:1233Punt3–0
CLEQ1 7:071271Field goal3–3
CARQ2 14:47751Touchdown10–3
CLEQ2 10:5110Turnover10–3
CARQ2 10:35426Turnover10–3
CLEQ2 9:02812Punt10–3
CARQ2 5:281360Touchdown17–3
CLEQ2 0:181-1End of half17–3
CLEQ3 15:0031Punt17–3
CARQ3 13:551077Touchdown24–3
CLEQ3 8:13729Turnover24–3
CARQ3 4:571344Touchdown31–3
CLEQ4 13:1467Punt31–3
CARQ4 10:1536Punt31–3
CLEQ4 8:491159Touchdown31–10
CARQ4 5:21415Punt31–10
CLEQ4 2:191280Touchdown31–17
CARQ4 0:101-1End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve Beuerlein21/2719920
Jeff Lewis2/31100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka17935.50
Fred Lane3124.00
Anthony Johnson166.00
Steve Beuerlein144.00
Jeff Lewis231.50
Eric Metcalf133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad710720
Tim Biakabutuka33420
Wesley Walls45391
Patrick Jeffers33340
Anthony Johnson22110
Brian Kinchen2221
Donald Hayes0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch29/4525912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Kirby6223.71
Tim Couch6162.70
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar7111.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Kirby911790
Darrin Chiaverini810721
Kevin Johnson514550
Irv Smith23260
Mark Campbell11210
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar2320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.14