2014 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

13·17

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -6

Total

40

Model margin

+6.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.007
  • 38.1%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -7.11CPOE-1.27
  • 29.9%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.63
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CAR @ CLE18–21CLE
2022 · W1CLE @ CAR26–24CLE
2018 · W14CAR @ CLE20–26CLE
2010 · W12CAR @ CLE23–24CLE
2006 · W5CLE @ CAR12–20CAR
2002 · W13CAR @ CLE13–6CAR
1999 · W11CAR @ CLE31–17CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CAR
CARQ1 15:00847Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 10:2937Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:121472Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 2:47940Field goal3–3
CARQ2 13:25622Punt3–3
CLEQ2 9:5935Punt3–3
CARQ2 8:211257Touchdown3–10
CLEQ2 1:5549Punt3–10
CARQ2 1:1338Punt3–10
CLEQ2 0:3627End of half3–10
CLEQ3 15:00523Punt3–10
CARQ3 12:501335Turnover3–10
CLEQ3 8:20843Field goal6–10
CARQ3 3:14513Punt6–10
CLEQ4 15:003-12Punt6–10
CARQ4 14:00416Punt6–10
CLEQ4 11:22385Touchdown13–10
CARQ4 9:59766Touchdown13–17
CLEQ4 7:0710Turnover13–17
CLEQ4 6:47621Punt13–17
CARQ4 3:24570End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer7/1313411
Johnny Manziel3/83200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell16553.40
Brian Hoyer2199.50
Andrew Hawkins273.50
Johnny Manziel231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron35881
Josh Gordon47450
Andrew Hawkins14280
Jim Dray1140
Taylor Gabriel1210
Travis Benjamin0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3120111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart241225.10
Cam Newton12635.31
Fozzy Whittaker155.00
Corey Brown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin512470
Jerricho Cotchery55460
Ed Dickson22440
Corey Brown23220
Greg Olsen13210
Brenton Bersin11140
Jonathan Stewart2471

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.64