Closing spread
CAR -6
Total
40
Model margin
+6.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.007
- 38.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -7.11CPOE-1.27
- 29.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.44Points / drive1.63
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 7/13 | 134 | 1 | 1 |
| Johnny Manziel | 3/8 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 5 | 88 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/31 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 24 | 122 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.64