Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
48
Model margin
+2.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.009
- 48.0%Success rate42.8%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.091
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.75CPOE-0.95
- 42.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.20Points / drive1.75
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 26/42 | 265 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1/1 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 9 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/22 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 2 | 81 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.97