2018 · Week 14

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

20·26

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

48

Model margin

+2.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.009
  • 48.0%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.037
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.091
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.75CPOE-0.95
  • 42.1%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.75
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CAR @ CLE18–21CLE
2022 · W1CLE @ CAR26–24CLE
2014 · W16CLE @ CAR13–17CAR
2010 · W12CAR @ CLE23–24CLE
2006 · W5CLE @ CAR12–20CAR
2002 · W13CAR @ CLE13–6CAR
1999 · W11CAR @ CLE31–17CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CLE
CARQ1 15:001070Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 9:17472Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 7:41934Punt7–7
CLEQ1 2:4037Turnover7–7
CARQ1 1:31517Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 14:131085Touchdown14–14
CARQ2 8:27775Field goal17–14
CLEQ2 4:03744Field goal17–17
CARQ2 0:59660End of half17–17
CLEQ3 15:001-3Turnover17–17
CARQ3 14:523-3Punt17–17
CLEQ3 13:153-6Punt17–17
CARQ3 11:371263Field goal20–17
CLEQ3 7:11520Punt20–17
CARQ3 4:1665Punt20–17
CLEQ3 1:36770Touchdown20–23
CARQ4 13:0530Punt20–23
CLEQ4 12:41540Field goal20–26
CARQ4 8:461272Turnover on downs20–26
CLEQ4 2:35521Punt20–26
CARQ4 1:0410Turnover20–26
CLEQ4 0:5700End of half20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton26/4226501
Taylor Heinicke1/13300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey16633.92
Cam Newton5234.60
Jarius Wright155.00
Cameron Artis-Payne155.00
Alex Armah100.00
DJ Moore100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel48800
Ian Thomas911770
DJ Moore58670
Christian McCaffrey67380
Jarius Wright35360
Devin Funchess0300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/2223810
Jarvis Landry0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb13665.11
Jarvis Landry25427.01
Baker Mayfield420.50
Duke Johnson2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman22810
Jarvis Landry34571
David Njoku34350
Dontrell Hilliard22200
Rashard Higgins23190
Nick Chubb46170
Orson Charles1190
Antonio Callaway1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.97