2010 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

23·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jake Delhomme

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CLE -9

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

1.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.249EPA / play-0.077
  • 33.5%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.274EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.215EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -7.94CPOE+2.13
  • 30.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 44.3%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 0.77Points / drive1.31
  • 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CAR @ CLE18–21CLE
2022 · W1CLE @ CAR26–24CLE
2018 · W14CAR @ CLE20–26CLE
2014 · W16CLE @ CAR13–17CAR
2006 · W5CLE @ CAR12–20CAR
2002 · W13CAR @ CLE13–6CAR
1999 · W11CAR @ CLE31–17CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CLE
CARQ1 15:00979Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 10:361078Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 6:4931Punt7–7
CLEQ1 5:48944Touchdown7–14
CARQ1 2:443-4Punt7–14
CLEQ1 0:26746Turnover7–14
CARQ2 12:5437Punt7–14
CLEQ2 11:25660Touchdown7–21
CARQ2 9:12949Field goal10–21
CLEQ2 3:1936Punt10–21
CARQ2 1:46518Field goal13–21
CLEQ2 0:471-13End of half13–21
CLEQ3 15:0010Turnover13–21
CARQ3 14:4234Missed field goal13–21
CLEQ3 13:0821Opp touchdown20–21
CLEQ3 12:181045Punt20–21
CARQ3 7:20630Punt20–21
CLEQ3 3:271353Turnover on downs20–21
CARQ4 11:33856Field goal23–21
CLEQ4 7:01851Field goal23–24
CARQ4 2:42415Turnover23–24
CLEQ4 1:2838—23–24
CARQ4 1:0800—23–24
CLEQ4 1:0700Punt23–24
CARQ4 0:59571Missed field goal23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen16/2819501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart12988.20
Mike Goodson14553.91
Dante Rosario1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Goodson810810
Brandon LaFell24370
Steve Smith25330
Dante Rosario35330
Jeff King0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme24/3524502
Peyton Hillis0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis261315.03
Mike Bell2147.00
Carlton Mitchell199.00
Jake Delhomme221.00
Chansi Stuckey1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peyton Hillis68630
Mohamed Massaquoi46520
Brian Robiskie77500
Benjamin Watson45400
Chansi Stuckey11240
Evan Moore23160
Carlton Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.43