Closing spread
CLE -9
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play-0.077
- 33.5%Success rate40.5%
- -0.274EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- -7.94CPOE+2.13
- 30.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 0.77Points / drive1.31
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 16/28 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 12 | 98 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Goodson | 8 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 24/35 | 245 | 0 | 2 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 26 | 131 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Mike Bell | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Carlton Mitchell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 7 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Carlton Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.43