2006 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Charlie Frye

12·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -7.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.197EPA / play-0.071
  • 38.3%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.178EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.231EPA / rush-0.112
  • 6.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.75CPOE-0.31
  • 34.0%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.29
  • 4.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CAR @ CLE18–21CLE
2022 · W1CLE @ CAR26–24CLE
2018 · W14CAR @ CLE20–26CLE
2014 · W16CLE @ CAR13–17CAR
2010 · W12CAR @ CLE23–24CLE
2002 · W13CAR @ CLE13–6CAR
1999 · W11CAR @ CLE31–17CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CAR
CARQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:491152Field goal3–0
CARQ1 5:3038Punt3–0
CLEQ1 4:0420Opp touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 3:1934Punt3–7
CARQ1 1:31420Punt3–7
CLEQ2 15:0035Punt3–7
CARQ2 12:51522Punt3–7
CLEQ2 9:2044Punt3–7
CARQ2 7:10758Touchdown3–14
CLEQ2 4:13743Punt3–14
CARQ2 1:29516Punt3–14
CLEQ2 0:5256Turnover3–14
CARQ2 0:0715Missed field goal3–14
CLEQ3 15:0031Punt3–14
CARQ3 13:54762Field goal3–17
CLEQ3 10:1345Field goal6–17
CARQ3 8:0739Punt6–17
CLEQ3 6:38414Punt6–17
CARQ3 4:28416Punt6–17
CLEQ3 2:06845Field goal9–17
CARQ4 12:5436Punt9–17
CLEQ4 11:164-7Punt9–17
CARQ4 9:411044Field goal9–20
CLEQ4 4:03633Turnover9–20
CARQ4 1:5931Punt9–20
CLEQ4 1:27743Field goal12–20
CARQ4 0:0500End of half12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Frye26/4317302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reuben Droughns18653.60
Jerome Harrison3144.70
Charlie Frye2126.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme20/2917010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster241064.40
Steve Smith177.00
DeAngelo Williams144.00
Nick Goings133.00
Jake Delhomme1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.48