Closing spread
CAR -7.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.197EPA / play-0.071
- 38.3%Success rate41.2%
- -0.178EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.231EPA / rush-0.112
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.75CPOE-0.31
- 34.0%Third-down rate31.1%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.01Points / drive1.29
- 4.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 26/43 | 173 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/29 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48