Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-3.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.036
- 44.1%Success rate40.8%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.062
- +0.002EPA / rush-0.005
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.05CPOE-4.71
- 39.0%Third-down rate31.6%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CAR are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 18/34 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 22 | 141 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 6 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/27 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 8 | 102 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
6.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.32