2022 · Week 1

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

26·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Baker Mayfield

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-3.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.013EPA / play-0.036
  • 44.1%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.062
  • +0.002EPA / rush-0.005
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.05CPOE-4.71
  • 39.0%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.70
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CAR are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CAR @ CLE18–21CLE
2018 · W14CAR @ CLE20–26CLE
2014 · W16CLE @ CAR13–17CAR
2010 · W12CAR @ CLE23–24CLE
2006 · W5CLE @ CAR12–20CAR
2002 · W13CAR @ CLE13–6CAR
1999 · W11CAR @ CLE31–17CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CAR
CARQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:29829Turnover on downs0–0
CARQ1 9:1747Punt0–0
CLEQ1 6:451029Punt0–0
CARQ1 1:5360Punt0–0
CLEQ2 14:5232Punt0–0
CARQ2 13:54512Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 12:2648Touchdown7–0
CARQ2 10:4933Punt7–0
CLEQ2 9:19878Touchdown14–0
CARQ2 4:46675Touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 1:57842Field goal17–7
CARQ2 0:2110End of half17–7
CLEQ3 15:001263Field goal20–7
CARQ3 7:425-3Punt20–7
CLEQ3 4:2438Punt20–7
CARQ3 2:351147Touchdown20–14
CLEQ4 12:51957Field goal23–14
CARQ4 6:13175Touchdown23–21
CLEQ4 6:02919Punt23–21
CARQ4 2:14650Field goal23–24
CLEQ4 1:13420Field goal26–24
CARQ4 0:081-3End of half26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett18/3414710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb221416.40
Kareem Hunt11464.21
Anthony Schwartz22010.00
Jacoby Brissett4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones611600
Kareem Hunt44241
Anthony Schwartz12190
Harrison Bryant24180
Amari Cooper36170
David Njoku1170
Nick Chubb1120
Demetric Felton0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield16/2723511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey10333.31
DJ Moore177.00
Baker Mayfield561.21
D'Onta Foreman252.50
Chuba Hubbard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen581021
Ian Thomas23530
DJ Moore36430
Christian McCaffrey45240
Shi Smith13120
Tommy Tremble1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

6.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.32