Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.130EPA / play-0.206
- 47.1%Success rate43.1%
- +0.242EPA / dropback-0.257
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.119
- 11.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.17CPOE+10.32
- 44.4%Third-down rate12.5%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.90Points / drive1.11
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.9%
Expected total
51.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.93