2026 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

18·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.067
  • 41.9%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.202
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -0.58CPOE-0.41
  • 39.3%Third-down rate32.6%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.49
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1CLE @ CAR26–24CLE
2018 · W14CAR @ CLE20–26CLE
2014 · W16CLE @ CAR13–17CAR
2010 · W12CAR @ CLE23–24CLE
2006 · W5CLE @ CAR12–20CAR
2002 · W13CAR @ CLE13–6CAR
1999 · W11CAR @ CLE31–17CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CLE
CARQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:00834Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:34425Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:511755Punt0–0
CARQ2 11:56831Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ2 8:33618Field goal0–3
CARQ2 5:4349Turnover on downs0–3
CLEQ2 3:36740Touchdown0–10
CARQ2 1:371029Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 0:2700End of half3–10
CLEQ3 15:0000Field goal3–10
CARQ3 14:4938Field goal6–10
CLEQ3 13:223-3Punt6–10
CARQ3 10:57835Punt6–10
CLEQ3 7:3435Punt6–10
CARQ3 6:00731Field goal9–10
CLEQ3 3:1736Punt9–10
CARQ3 2:101168Field goal12–10
CLEQ4 11:41644Field goal12–13
CARQ4 7:30672Touchdown18–13
CLEQ4 4:251055Touchdown18–21
CARQ4 1:4842Turnover on downs18–21
CLEQ4 1:1747Turnover on downs18–21
CARQ4 1:01531Turnover18–21
CLEQ4 0:0900End of half18–21

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young26/4829111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard19824.30
AJ Dillon4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brycen Tremayne46830
Darren Waller58510
Tommy Tremble34410
Mitchell Evans33360
Chuba Hubbard44280
John Metchie III25191
Jalen Coker24180
Tetairoa McMillan25170
David Moore0200
AJ Dillon11-20

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/3014420
Shedeur Sanders1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins18703.90
Deshaun Watson11454.10
Raheim Sanders11717.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harold Fannin Jr.79512
Denzel Boston24410
Raheim Sanders45340
Quinshon Judkins2290
KC Concepcion2990

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36