Closing spread
CLE -7.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play+0.007
- 35.3%Success rate42.2%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- 29.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 0.82Points / drive1.59
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 4–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 8/17 | 89 | 1 | 1 |
| Dee Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Randy Fasani | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Brown | 27 | 122 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Randy Fasani | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 4 | 11 | 49 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 12/27 | 130 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 24 | 94 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| William Green | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.58