2002 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

13·6

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -7.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.177EPA / play+0.007
  • 35.3%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.219EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.59
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.025

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CLE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CAR @ CLE18–21CLE
2022 · W1CLE @ CAR26–24CLE
2018 · W14CAR @ CLE20–26CLE
2014 · W16CLE @ CAR13–17CAR
2010 · W12CAR @ CLE23–24CLE
2006 · W5CLE @ CAR12–20CAR
1999 · W11CAR @ CLE31–17CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CLE
CARQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:431158Field goal0–3
CARQ1 6:52770Missed field goal0–3
CLEQ1 2:1710Turnover0–3
CARQ1 2:05327Touchdown7–3
CLEQ1 0:091039Missed field goal7–3
CARQ2 10:4037Punt7–3
CARQ2 9:361047Missed field goal7–3
CLEQ2 3:55643Punt7–3
CARQ2 0:5726End of half7–3
CLEQ3 15:00624Turnover7–3
CARQ3 12:4837Punt7–3
CLEQ3 11:41526Punt7–3
CARQ3 9:1131Punt7–3
CLEQ3 7:3530Punt7–3
CARQ3 6:31311Turnover7–3
CLEQ3 5:05314Punt7–3
CARQ3 3:5510Turnover7–3
CLEQ3 3:39625Field goal7–6
CARQ3 0:071045Field goal10–6
CLEQ4 9:13313Turnover10–6
CARQ4 7:42713Field goal13–6
CLEQ4 2:53416Turnover13–6
CARQ4 1:4500End of half13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete8/178911
Dee Brown0/1001
Randy Fasani0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dee Brown271224.50
Randy Fasani461.50
Rodney Peete3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad411490
Wesley Walls13241
Kris Mangum1190
Dee Brown1240
Steve Smith1130

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch12/2713003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green24943.90
Dennis Northcutt13434.00
Jamel White177.00
James Jackson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson510570
William Green34440
Steve Heiden23180
Jamel White24110
Mark Campbell0100
Quincy Morgan0300
Andre Davis0100
Darnell Sanders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.58