Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.176
- 39.6%Success rate35.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.148
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.226
- 9.3%Explosive rate5.9%
- 34.8%Third-down rate33.3%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.25Points / drive0.87
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 13–7 since 1999
ARI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 41.7 points. ARI are 11-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:30 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:04 | 10 | 91 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 0:58 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 14:48 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 10:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 9:18 | 11 | 33 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 4:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 2:55 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 1:46 | 7 | 31 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 13:10 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q3 11:23 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 7:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q3 6:08 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 2:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q3 2:00 | 11 | 42 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q4 11:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–13 |
| ARI | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q4 7:30 | 7 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 7–13 |
| ARI | Q4 3:22 | 4 | -9 | Safety | 9–13 |
| DAL | Q4 1:49 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 9–13 |
| ARI | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Garrett | 16/29 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 29 | 127 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jason Garrett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Ernie Mills | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 13/29 | 115 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dave Brown | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 1 | 7 | 21 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36