Closing spread
MIN -13.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. MIN are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:06 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:34 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 4:38 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:55 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:31 | 5 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 9:13 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 7:22 | 4 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 5:55 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q2 5:05 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q2 3:44 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–28 |
| MIN | Q2 1:42 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q2 0:16 | 3 | 34 | End of half | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| MIN | Q3 14:40 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 14–28 |
| LAC | Q3 11:36 | 3 | 7 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| MIN | Q3 10:33 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 21–28 |
| LAC | Q3 9:28 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 24–28 |
| MIN | Q3 7:40 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 24–35 |
| LAC | Q3 4:10 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 24–35 |
| MIN | Q3 1:13 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 24–35 |
| LAC | Q4 13:34 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 27–35 |
| MIN | Q4 11:41 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 27–35 |
| LAC | Q4 7:36 | 8 | 74 | Turnover | 27–35 |
| MIN | Q4 4:29 | 6 | 34 | End of half | 27–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 28/43 | 363 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 104 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 11 | 17 | 136 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 7 | 11 | 127 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Leroy Hoard | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Carlester Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.