Closing spread
MIN -13.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. MIN are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 28/43 | 363 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 104 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 11 | 17 | 136 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 7 | 11 | 127 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Leroy Hoard | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Carlester Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.