2003 · Week 10

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

28·42

Chargers

San Diego

QB Doug Flutie

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.3est.

SD perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–4 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIN @ LAC10–37CHARGERS
2023 · W3LAC @ MIN28–24CHARGERS
2021 · W10MIN @ LAC27–20MIN
2019 · W15MIN @ LAC39–10MIN
2015 · W3SD @ MIN14–31MIN
2011 · W1MIN @ SD17–24CHARGERS
2007 · W9SD @ MIN17–35MIN
1999 · W12SD @ MIN27–35MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SD
LACQ1 15:00763Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 11:4749Punt0–7
LACQ1 9:50590Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 7:511080Touchdown7–14
LACQ1 2:091378Touchdown7–21
MINQ2 11:3613108Touchdown14–21
LACQ2 4:421248Touchdown14–28
MINQ2 0:25325End of half14–28
MINQ3 15:00963Turnover14–28
LACQ3 9:56454Punt14–28
MINQ3 7:55611Punt14–28
LACQ3 4:45738Touchdown14–35
MINQ3 1:36452Touchdown21–35
LACQ4 14:4835Punt21–35
MINQ4 13:1239Punt21–35
LACQ4 11:07573Touchdown21–42
MINQ4 8:111258Touchdown28–42
LACQ4 4:2000Turnover28–42
MINQ4 4:20827Turnover28–42
LACQ4 2:3259Punt28–42
MINQ4 0:24218End of half28–42

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper32/4437041

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Moe Williams12453.80
Daunte Culpepper6427.00
Michael Bennett5234.60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.