Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 32/44 | 370 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.