Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.016
- 43.3%Success rate43.6%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.84CPOE+0.01
- 32.4%Third-down rate46.7%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.75Points / drive2.10
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 15/27 | 144 | 1 | 1 |
| Max Brosmer | 3/4 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zavier Scott | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Yurosek | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 18/25 | 227 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal | 23 | 117 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.05