2025 · Week 8

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Carson Wentz

10·37

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapChargers
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.016
  • 43.3%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.84CPOE+0.01
  • 32.4%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.10
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–4 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3LAC @ MIN28–24CHARGERS
2021 · W10MIN @ LAC27–20MIN
2019 · W15MIN @ LAC39–10MIN
2015 · W3SD @ MIN14–31MIN
2011 · W1MIN @ SD17–24CHARGERS
2007 · W9SD @ MIN17–35MIN
2003 · W10MIN @ SD28–42CHARGERS
1999 · W12SD @ MIN27–35MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–LAC
MINQ1 15:00625Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:401474Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 4:013-9Punt0–7
LACQ1 2:12954Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 13:08835Field goal3–14
LACQ2 8:55644Missed field goal3–14
MINQ2 6:06418Punt3–14
LACQ2 4:04994Touchdown3–21
MINQ2 0:45424Missed field goal3–21
LACQ3 15:00842Field goal3–24
MINQ3 10:01512Punt3–24
LACQ3 7:0310Turnover3–24
MINQ3 6:58716Touchdown10–24
LACQ3 4:361282Touchdown10–31
MINQ4 12:42212Turnover10–31
LACQ4 11:53720Field goal10–34
MINQ4 7:0142Turnover on downs10–34
LACQ4 6:1969Field goal10–37
MINQ4 1:56629End of half10–37

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz15/2714411
Max Brosmer3/41300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zavier Scott2168.00
Aaron Jones5153.00
Jordan Mason430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson711740
T.J. Hockenson23260
Jordan Addison34261
Aaron Jones24150
Zavier Scott2280
Ben Yurosek1250
Jordan Mason1130
Adam Thielen0200
Jalen Nailor0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert18/2522731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kimani Vidal231175.11
Justin Herbert7628.90
Jaret Patterson11302.70
Nyheim Hines2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey610881
Oronde Gadsden II55771
Keenan Allen45440
Kimani Vidal12100
Tre Harris2281

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.05