2021 · Week 10

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

27·20

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapChargers
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.088
  • 41.6%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.075
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +0.82CPOE-0.71
  • 36.6%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.55
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–4 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIN @ LAC10–37CHARGERS
2023 · W3LAC @ MIN28–24CHARGERS
2019 · W15MIN @ LAC39–10MIN
2015 · W3SD @ MIN14–31MIN
2011 · W1MIN @ SD17–24CHARGERS
2007 · W9SD @ MIN17–35MIN
2003 · W10MIN @ SD28–42CHARGERS
1999 · W12SD @ MIN27–35MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–LAC
MINQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:353-3Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:343-1Turnover0–0
LACQ1 8:25631Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:121065Field goal3–0
LACQ2 14:12724Field goal3–3
MINQ2 11:281360Field goal6–3
LACQ2 6:3810Turnover6–3
MINQ2 6:26641Touchdown13–3
LACQ2 3:261042Touchdown13–10
MINQ2 1:303-3Punt13–10
LACQ2 1:0034Punt13–10
MINQ2 0:2115End of half13–10
LACQ3 15:001075Touchdown13–17
MINQ3 10:4033Punt13–17
LACQ3 9:1258Punt13–17
MINQ3 6:251055Touchdown20–17
LACQ3 2:3333Punt20–17
MINQ3 1:331268Touchdown27–17
LACQ4 9:291169Field goal27–20
MINQ4 4:36968End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins25/3729420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook24943.91
Alexander Mattison4164.00
Kirk Cousins4-3-0.80
Justin Jefferson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson9111430
Adam Thielen57650
Dalvin Cook35240
Alexander Mattison11240
Chris Herndon12140
Tyler Conklin35112
K.J. Osborn0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert20/3419511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler11444.00
Justin Herbert22211.00
Larry Rountree III5102.01
Joshua Kelley166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen811980
Mike Williams46330
Josh Palmer34220
Donald Parham12170
Austin Ekeler36151
Jared Cook13100
Jalen Guyton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.64