Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.088
- 41.6%Success rate47.4%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.075
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.82CPOE-0.71
- 36.6%Third-down rate45.7%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 2.13Points / drive2.55
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/37 | 294 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 24 | 94 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 143 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/34 | 195 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64