Closing spread
SD -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. MIN are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 7/10 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 6/12 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 30 | 296 | 9.9 | 3 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.