Closing spread
SD -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. MIN are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:37 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:23 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:44 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 2:49 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 1:44 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:58 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 12:07 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:50 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 8:27 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 5:58 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 2:24 | 8 | 31 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| MIN | Q3 12:36 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q3 9:39 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 14–14 |
| MIN | Q3 6:44 | 6 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q3 3:07 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| MIN | Q4 14:09 | 7 | 71 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| LAC | Q4 10:07 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–27 |
| MIN | Q4 7:54 | 1 | 46 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| LAC | Q4 7:44 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| MIN | Q4 7:30 | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| LAC | Q4 4:28 | 11 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 17–35 |
| MIN | Q4 1:58 | 3 | 44 | End of half | 17–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 7/10 | 95 | 1 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 6/12 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 30 | 296 | 9.9 | 3 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.