Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
45
Model margin
+0.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.036
- 42.1%Success rate47.3%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.118
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.53CPOE+3.58
- 44.0%Third-down rate45.5%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.31Points / drive1.99
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/25 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Boone | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 28/39 | 307 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53