2019 · Week 15

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

39·10

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

45

Model margin

+0.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapChargers
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.036
  • 42.1%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.118
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +3.53CPOE+3.58
  • 44.0%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.99
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–4 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. LAC are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIN @ LAC10–37CHARGERS
2023 · W3LAC @ MIN28–24CHARGERS
2021 · W10MIN @ LAC27–20MIN
2015 · W3SD @ MIN14–31MIN
2011 · W1MIN @ SD17–24CHARGERS
2007 · W9SD @ MIN17–35MIN
2003 · W10MIN @ SD28–42CHARGERS
1999 · W12SD @ MIN27–35MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–LAC
MINQ1 15:001160Touchdown6–0
LACQ1 9:10962Field goal6–3
MINQ1 4:35625Punt6–3
LACQ1 2:1227Turnover6–3
MINQ1 1:2634Field goal9–3
LACQ2 14:571075Touchdown9–10
MINQ2 8:421050Field goal12–10
LACQ2 4:17514Turnover12–10
MINQ2 1:58420Turnover12–10
LACQ2 0:51619Opp touchdown19–10
LACQ2 0:07112End of half19–10
LACQ3 15:0015Turnover19–10
MINQ3 14:52311Field goal22–10
LACQ3 12:3733Punt22–10
MINQ3 11:09632Field goal25–10
LACQ3 7:061367Turnover on downs25–10
MINQ4 14:55896Touchdown32–10
LACQ4 10:2515Turnover32–10
MINQ4 10:17310Touchdown39–10
LACQ4 8:45424Turnover39–10
MINQ4 7:12839Punt39–10
LACQ4 4:13752Turnover39–10
MINQ4 1:4800End of half39–10

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/2520711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Boone13564.32
Dalvin Cook9273.00
Ameer Abdullah5255.00
Kirk Cousins3144.70
Bisi Johnson166.00
Stefon Diggs144.00
Adam Thielen133.00
Sean Mannion3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs46760
Kyle Rudolph33480
Adam Thielen33270
Bisi Johnson11190
Dalvin Cook33160
Irv Smith2381
Ameer Abdullah0200

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers28/3930713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon7284.00
Austin Ekeler7192.70
Justin Jackson5153.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen910990
Mike Williams49711
Austin Ekeler57620
Melvin Gordon57360
Hunter Henry22290
Andre Patton1180
Justin Jackson2220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.53