Closing spread
SD -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- QuestionableAsher AllenCBFoot· Limited
- DNPPhil LoadholtTNot Injury Related
- LimitedLetroy GuionDTNot Injury Related
- ProbableChris CookCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableDonovan McNabbQBright Wrist· Full
- ProbableVisanthe ShiancoeTEHamstring· Full
Chargers
- QuestionableJonas MoutonLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionablePatrick CraytonWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableVincent BrownWRHamstring· DNP
- ProbableAndrew GachkarLBBack· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 14:45 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:08 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:59 | 3 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 11:38 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:57 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 5:30 | 13 | 72 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 12:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:12 | 3 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:44 | 15 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q2 3:07 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:38 | 9 | 61 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| MIN | Q2 0:03 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q3 10:43 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:17 | 12 | 53 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q3 2:34 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q4 14:50 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| MIN | Q4 10:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q4 8:11 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| MIN | Q4 5:01 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q4 3:01 | 8 | 17 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 7/15 | 39 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 98 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.