Closing spread
SD -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. SD are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 7/15 | 39 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 98 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.