Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
54
Model margin
+7.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.025
- 41.4%Success rate43.2%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.158
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.84CPOE+2.80
- 38.3%Third-down rate37.5%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.75Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 5–4 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. MIN are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 40/47 | 405 | 3 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1/1 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 11 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 18 | 20 | 215 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 7 | 8 | 121 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 32/50 | 367 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 20 | 93 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 13 | 149 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.74
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.52