2023 · Week 3

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

28·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

54

Model margin

+7.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapVikings
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.025
  • 41.4%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.158
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.84CPOE+2.80
  • 38.3%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.84
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 5–4 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.7 points. MIN are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8MIN @ LAC10–37CHARGERS
2021 · W10MIN @ LAC27–20MIN
2019 · W15MIN @ LAC39–10MIN
2015 · W3SD @ MIN14–31MIN
2011 · W1MIN @ SD17–24CHARGERS
2007 · W9SD @ MIN17–35MIN
2003 · W10MIN @ SD28–42CHARGERS
1999 · W12SD @ MIN27–35MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–MIN
LACQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:43740Turnover0–0
LACQ1 8:321279Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 2:51617Punt7–0
LACQ2 14:53922Punt7–0
MINQ2 10:13670Touchdown7–7
LACQ2 7:27318Turnover7–7
MINQ2 6:021246Field goal7–10
LACQ2 2:081075Touchdown14–10
MINQ2 0:47424End of half14–10
MINQ3 15:00423Punt14–10
LACQ3 13:40664Missed field goal14–10
MINQ3 10:50616Punt14–10
LACQ3 7:04380Touchdown21–10
MINQ3 5:53870Touchdown21–17
LACQ3 3:01516Punt21–17
MINQ3 0:07993Touchdown21–24
LACQ4 11:20885Touchdown28–24
MINQ4 8:051358Turnover on downs28–24
LACQ4 2:53522Turnover on downs28–24
MINQ4 1:47818Turnover28–24
LACQ4 0:0700End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert40/4740530
Keenan Allen1/14910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joshua Kelley11121.10
Justin Herbert2115.50
Isaiah Spiller273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen18202150
Mike Williams781211
Josh Palmer47661
Gerald Everett66300
Quentin Johnston23100
Joshua Kelley1150
Donald Parham2242
Derius Davis1130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins32/5036731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison20934.70
Ty Chandler3279.00
Kirk Cousins11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson7131491
T.J. Hockenson811780
Jordan Addison68520
K.J. Osborn13361
Alexander Mattison57320
Brandon Powell1150
Josh Oliver2241
Ty Chandler1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%5.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.74
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+7.52