Closing spread
NE -2
Total
38
Model margin
+0.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.107
- 39.6%Success rate37.4%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.179
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- 34.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.25Points / drive1.19
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 10:14 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 5:44 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 4:55 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q1 2:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 1:19 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q2 13:50 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 12:04 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q2 6:49 | 9 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| NE | Q2 1:50 | 7 | 45 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q2 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–6 |
| NE | Q3 12:48 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q3 8:37 | 10 | 66 | Missed field goal | 3–6 |
| NE | Q3 3:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q3 1:40 | 8 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| NE | Q4 12:04 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| DAL | Q4 6:39 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| NE | Q4 2:50 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 6–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 20/29 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 8 | 12 | 58 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 14/25 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.28