Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.193
- 45.1%Success rate51.2%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.019
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.08CPOE+3.92
- 39.2%Third-down rate46.4%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.79Points / drive2.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 27/41 | 317 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 7 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/41 | 289 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 8 | 14 | 68 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 10 | 45 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.84