2011 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

16·20

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -6.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPatriots
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.193
  • 45.1%Success rate51.2%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.301
  • -0.111EPA / rush+0.019
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.08CPOE+3.92
  • 39.2%Third-down rate46.4%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.61
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4NE @ DAL3–38DAL
2021 · W6DAL @ NE35–29DAL
2019 · W12DAL @ NE9–13NE
2015 · W5NE @ DAL30–6NE
2007 · W6NE @ DAL48–27NE
2003 · W11DAL @ NE0–12NE
1999 · W13DAL @ NE6–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NE
DALQ1 15:00633Turnover0–0
NEQ1 12:03834Field goal0–3
DALQ1 8:41721Punt0–3
NEQ1 4:5310Turnover0–3
DALQ1 4:474-2Field goal3–3
NEQ1 3:1600Turnover3–3
DALQ1 3:09511Turnover3–3
NEQ1 1:031182Field goal3–6
DALQ2 12:07511Punt3–6
NEQ2 10:37859Touchdown3–13
DALQ2 7:341193Touchdown10–13
NEQ2 0:3312End of half10–13
NEQ3 15:0065Punt10–13
DALQ3 11:481272Field goal13–13
NEQ3 5:501561Turnover13–13
DALQ3 0:30732Punt13–13
NEQ4 12:54942Turnover13–13
DALQ4 9:08970Field goal16–13
NEQ4 5:1336Punt16–13
DALQ4 3:3635Punt16–13
NEQ4 2:311080Touchdown16–20
DALQ4 0:22331End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo27/4131711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray11343.10
Tony Romo11717.00
Tashard Choice5142.80
Felix Jones7121.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant48780
Miles Austin710740
Jason Witten44481
Laurent Robinson22430
Felix Jones24190
Tashard Choice35160
Martellus Bennett23130
Kevin Ogletree12120
John Phillips1170
DeMarco Murray1270

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady27/4128922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis14584.10
Stevan Ridley3196.30
Tom Brady4174.30
Danny Woodhead471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski77740
Deion Branch35690
Aaron Hernandez814681
Wes Welker610451
Danny Woodhead23220
BenJarvus Green-Ellis11110
Chad Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.84