2015 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

30·6

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Brandon Weeden

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

51

Model margin

+1.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.0%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.32CPOE-0.85
  • 41.0%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.31
  • 1.0%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4NE @ DAL3–38DAL
2021 · W6DAL @ NE35–29DAL
2019 · W12DAL @ NE9–13NE
2011 · W6DAL @ NE16–20NE
2007 · W6NE @ DAL48–27NE
2003 · W11DAL @ NE0–12NE
1999 · W13DAL @ NE6–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DAL
DALQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:58412Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:383-2Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:23414Field goal3–0
DALQ1 8:191138Field goal3–3
NEQ1 1:46523Punt3–3
DALQ2 14:0639Punt3–3
NEQ2 12:36615Punt3–3
DALQ2 8:39410Punt3–3
NEQ2 5:57850Touchdown10–3
DALQ2 3:3935Punt10–3
NEQ2 2:0032Punt10–3
DALQ2 1:123-1Punt10–3
NEQ2 0:53316Field goal13–3
DALQ2 0:0300End of half13–3
NEQ3 15:001085Touchdown20–3
DALQ3 9:481575Field goal20–6
NEQ3 1:17690Touchdown27–6
DALQ4 12:58533Turnover27–6
NEQ4 11:0349Turnover on downs27–6
DALQ4 9:42728Turnover27–6
NEQ4 6:20442Field goal30–6
DALQ4 4:411469Turnover on downs30–6
NEQ4 1:2000End of half30–6

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/2727520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13745.70
Dion Lewis6345.70
Tom Brady231.51
Jimmy Garoppolo2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman451201
Rob Gronkowski45670
Dion Lewis811591
Keshawn Martin22230
Danny Amendola2360
Matthew Slater0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden26/3918701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Randle15624.10
Brandon Weeden3186.00
Darren McFadden5163.20
Christine Michael166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren McFadden910620
Cole Beasley46400
Jason Witten56330
Terrance Williams26300
Devin Street12130
Joseph Randle44120
Gavin Escobar0200
Vince Mayle0100
Lucky Whitehead12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -84.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.05
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.67