Closing spread
NE -8
Total
51
Model margin
+1.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.073
- 44.0%Success rate43.9%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.32CPOE-0.85
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.0%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.31
- 1.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/27 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 74 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 5 | 120 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 8 | 11 | 59 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 26/39 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Randle | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 9 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Vince Mayle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.05
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.67