Closing spread
NE -4
Total
35
Model margin
+4.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.043
- 39.6%Success rate40.7%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.23Points / drive1.42
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 20/36 | 210 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/34 | 212 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.56