Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.010
- 48.7%Success rate42.6%
- +0.192EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.078
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.10CPOE-2.06
- 47.2%Third-down rate39.1%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.45Points / drive1.85
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/33 | 212 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/37 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 12 | 93 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63