Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+6.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play+0.121
- 38.9%Success rate48.0%
- -0.226EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.061
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.39CPOE+3.68
- 30.8%Third-down rate49.6%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.00Points / drive2.67
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/21 | 150 | 0 | 2 |
| Bailey Zappe | 4/9 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/34 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/2 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 46 | 46.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.36