2023 · Week 4

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

3·38

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+6.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.189EPA / play+0.121
  • 38.9%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.226EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.061
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.39CPOE+3.68
  • 30.8%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.00Points / drive2.67
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W6DAL @ NE35–29DAL
2019 · W12DAL @ NE9–13NE
2015 · W5NE @ DAL30–6NE
2011 · W6DAL @ NE16–20NE
2007 · W6NE @ DAL48–27NE
2003 · W11DAL @ NE0–12NE
1999 · W13DAL @ NE6–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DAL
DALQ1 15:00970Field goal0–3
NEQ1 10:52769Field goal3–3
DALQ1 6:411075Touchdown3–10
NEQ1 1:30739Turnover on downs3–10
DALQ2 13:433-8Punt3–10
NEQ2 11:5423Opp touchdown3–18
NEQ2 11:0934Punt3–18
DALQ2 9:361073Field goal3–21
NEQ2 4:03837Opp touchdown3–28
NEQ2 0:5432Punt3–28
DALQ2 0:16223End of half3–28
NEQ3 15:00735Turnover3–28
DALQ3 11:43937Field goal3–31
NEQ3 7:4234Punt3–31
DALQ3 6:0867Turnover on downs3–31
NEQ3 3:41612Punt3–31
DALQ3 0:50621Punt3–31
NEQ4 12:3036Punt3–31
DALQ4 10:59760Touchdown3–38
NEQ4 6:38642Missed field goal3–38
DALQ4 4:03422End of half3–38

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones12/2115002
Bailey Zappe4/95700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson14302.10
Ezekiel Elliott6162.70
Mac Jones372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry45510
DeMario Douglas23450
Kendrick Bourne23360
DeVante Parker24330
JuJu Smith-Schuster15140
Mike Gesicki13120
Rhamondre Stevenson23100
Ezekiel Elliott2360

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott28/3426110
Cooper Rush2/22000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard11474.30
KaVontae Turpin14646.00
CeeDee Lamb11212.00
Rico Dowdle393.00
Deuce Vaughn891.10
Hunter Luepke242.01
Dak Prescott1-1-1.00
Cooper Rush3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jake Ferguson77770
Michael Gallup56600
Jalen Tolbert44530
CeeDee Lamb46361
Brandin Cooks44270
Tony Pollard33130
Rico Dowdle1180
KaVontae Turpin1150
Deuce Vaughn1120
Luke Schoonmaker0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.36