2021 · Week 6

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

35·29

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPatriots
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.070
  • 46.8%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.012
  • 9.4%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +1.99CPOE+2.93
  • 43.7%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.44Points / drive2.41
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4NE @ DAL3–38DAL
2019 · W12DAL @ NE9–13NE
2015 · W5NE @ DAL30–6NE
2011 · W6DAL @ NE16–20NE
2007 · W6NE @ DAL48–27NE
2003 · W11DAL @ NE0–12NE
1999 · W13DAL @ NE6–13NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NE
DALQ1 15:00732Turnover on downs0–0
NEQ1 12:01334Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 10:20775Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 6:43460Touchdown7–14
DALQ1 4:501579Turnover7–14
NEQ2 12:48628Turnover7–14
DALQ2 10:05833Field goal10–14
NEQ2 6:3939Punt10–14
DALQ2 4:28716Turnover10–14
NEQ2 1:3011End of half10–14
NEQ3 15:0031Punt10–14
DALQ3 12:4831Punt10–14
NEQ3 11:20313Punt10–14
DALQ3 9:181080Touchdown17–14
NEQ3 4:49521Punt17–14
DALQ3 1:58866Field goal20–14
NEQ4 13:131370Touchdown20–21
DALQ4 6:23850Missed field goal20–21
NEQ4 2:4220Opp touchdown26–21
NEQ4 2:27175Touchdown26–29
DALQ4 2:11855Field goal29–29
NEQ4 0:2016End of half29–29
NEOT521Punt29–29
DALOT780Touchdown35–29

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott36/5144531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott17694.10
Tony Pollard10414.10
Dak Prescott3103.30
CeeDee Lamb122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb9111492
Dalton Schultz56790
Amari Cooper58550
Ezekiel Elliott79500
Noah Brown22470
Cedrick Wilson Jr.47420
Tony Pollard33220
Blake Jarwin1211
Malik Turner0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones15/2122921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris181015.61
Rhamondre Stevenson5234.61
Nelson Agholor111.00
Brandon Bolden1-1-1.00
Mac Jones2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne12751
Jakobi Meyers56440
Rhamondre Stevenson33390
Nelson Agholor14270
Hunter Henry22251
Jonnu Smith1290
Damien Harris1170
Brandon Bolden1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.37