Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.070
- 46.8%Success rate48.6%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.012
- 9.4%Explosive rate11.1%
- +1.99CPOE+2.93
- 43.7%Third-down rate45.5%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.44Points / drive2.41
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 36/51 | 445 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 11 | 149 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Malik Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 15/21 | 229 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 18 | 101 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 75 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.37