Closing spread
NE -5
Total
52
Model margin
-0.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.256EPA / play+0.109
- 53.7%Success rate45.8%
- +0.422EPA / dropback+0.230
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +7.39CPOE+4.58
- 48.4%Third-down rate43.2%
- 73.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 3.13Points / drive2.23
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.1 points. DAL are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/46 | 388 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 14 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/29 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.41