Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
41
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/39 | 245 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Derrick Mayes | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Charles Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.24
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.