Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.068
- 41.7%Success rate39.4%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.132
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- 34.4%Third-down rate39.2%
- 42.7%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.14Points / drive1.24
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.079EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:17 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:47 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 5:25 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 3:51 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| SF | Q1 2:34 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 12:39 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| SF | Q2 9:00 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q2 4:00 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| SF | Q2 2:09 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 10–24 |
| CIN | Q2 1:24 | 11 | 84 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| CIN | Q3 9:49 | 4 | 35 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CIN | Q3 7:57 | 4 | 11 | Field goal | 17–30 |
| SF | Q3 6:28 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 24–30 |
| CIN | Q3 4:49 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 24–37 |
| SF | Q3 2:45 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 30–37 |
| CIN | Q4 14:11 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 30–44 |
| SF | Q4 9:23 | 12 | 77 | Turnover on downs | 30–44 |
| CIN | Q4 4:18 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 30–44 |
| SF | Q4 1:18 | 6 | 71 | End of half | 30–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 33/48 | 437 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Rice | 9 | 15 | 157 | 2 |
| Terrell Owens | 9 | 11 | 145 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 21/30 | 334 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 25 | 133 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Pickens | 7 | 8 | 107 | 2 |
| Darnay Scott | 3 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Corey Dillon | 5 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.40