Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
46
Model margin
-1.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.097
- 44.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.194EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.137
- 12.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.34CPOE-5.27
- 45.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.28Points / drive1.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 17/25 | 296 | 3 | 1 |
| Dante Pettis | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 12 | 121 | 10.1 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 13 | 83 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 4 | 68 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/42 | 311 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 10 | 10 | 122 | 0 |
| John Ross | 4 | 8 | 112 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Damion Willis | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.37