2019 · Week 2

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

41·17

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

46

Model margin

-1.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBengals
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.097
  • 44.8%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.137
  • 12.1%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.34CPOE-5.27
  • 45.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.28Points / drive1.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CIN @ SF31–17CIN
2021 · W14SF @ CIN26–23SF
2015 · W15CIN @ SF24–14CIN
2011 · W3SF @ CIN13–8SF
2007 · W15CIN @ SF13–20SF
2003 · W15SF @ CIN38–41CIN
1999 · W13SF @ CIN30–44CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CIN
CINQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:05451Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 11:13969Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 6:43884Touchdown14–7
CINQ1 2:3666Punt14–7
SFQ2 14:1920Turnover14–7
CINQ2 14:0447Missed field goal14–7
SFQ2 12:50658Touchdown21–7
CINQ2 10:09956Field goal21–10
SFQ2 6:57546Punt21–10
CINQ2 4:421138Turnover21–10
SFQ2 1:14952Field goal24–10
CINQ2 0:0200End of half24–10
SFQ3 15:00785Touchdown31–10
CINQ3 12:1061Punt31–10
SFQ3 9:12859Field goal34–10
CINQ3 4:3437Punt34–10
SFQ3 3:09682Touchdown41–10
CINQ4 14:5635Punt41–10
SFQ4 13:30939Missed field goal41–10
CINQ4 7:051155Turnover on downs41–10
SFQ4 4:00417Punt41–10
CINQ4 1:54472Touchdown41–17
SFQ4 0:4500End of half41–17

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo17/2529631
Dante Pettis1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida1212110.10
Raheem Mostert13836.40
Jeff Wilson10343.42
Jimmy Garoppolo482.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.57861
Marquise Goodwin33771
Raheem Mostert34681
George Kittle33540
Matt Breida11110
Richie James1470
Kendrick Bourne1240

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/4231121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11171.50
Giovani Bernard661.00
Andy Dalton221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd10101220
John Ross481121
Drew Sample23250
Alex Erickson13140
Joe Mixon35100
Tyler Eifert3591
Giovani Bernard1370
Auden Tate1260
Damion Willis1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.37