2021 · Week 14

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

26·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBengals
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.063
  • 45.5%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.094
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.73CPOE+5.14
  • 40.6%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.38
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CIN @ SF31–17CIN
2019 · W2SF @ CIN41–17SF
2015 · W15CIN @ SF24–14CIN
2011 · W3SF @ CIN13–8SF
2007 · W15CIN @ SF13–20SF
2003 · W15SF @ CIN38–41CIN
1999 · W13SF @ CIN30–44CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CIN
SFQ1 15:003-11Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:533-2Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:54517Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:10418Field goal3–0
CINQ1 6:371072Field goal3–3
SFQ1 0:31675Touchdown10–3
CINQ2 12:05420Punt10–3
SFQ2 9:2837Punt10–3
CINQ2 7:481248Field goal10–6
SFQ2 1:4245Punt10–6
SFQ2 0:57417Touchdown17–6
CINQ2 0:1800End of half17–6
CINQ3 15:0039Punt17–6
SFQ3 13:001169Field goal20–6
CINQ3 7:431142Missed field goal20–6
SFQ3 1:1361Punt20–6
CINQ4 11:52666Touchdown20–13
SFQ4 9:2045Punt20–13
CINQ4 6:4044Punt20–13
SFQ4 4:37522Punt20–13
CINQ4 2:40787Touchdown20–20
SFQ4 1:19950Missed field goal20–20
CINOT652Field goal20–23
SFOT780Touchdown26–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo27/4129620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson13564.30
Deebo Samuel Sr.8374.61
Brandon Aiyuk144.00
Jimmy Garoppolo133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle13151511
Brandon Aiyuk610621
Jauan Jennings35460
Deebo Samuel Sr.11220
JaMycal Hasty33100
Travis Benjamin0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3434820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18583.20
Samaje Perine4112.80
Tyler Boyd188.00
Ja'Marr Chase166.00
Joe Burrow231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins571140
Ja'Marr Chase58772
C.J. Uzomah46560
Tyler Boyd45550
Samaje Perine45220
Drew Sample11140
Joe Mixon22100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.37