Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.063
- 45.5%Success rate44.6%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.094
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.73CPOE+5.14
- 40.6%Third-down rate40.1%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.30Points / drive2.38
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 27/41 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 13 | 15 | 151 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/34 | 348 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 7 | 114 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 77 | 2 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37