Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
42
Model margin
+1.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.049
- 43.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.053
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- 41.6%Third-down rate44.6%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.83Points / drive1.83
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed+0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:51 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 5:27 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 2:26 | 6 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:33 | 3 | -14 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 13:03 | 3 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 11:30 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SF | Q2 10:19 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CIN | Q2 7:29 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| SF | Q2 3:26 | 9 | 69 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| SF | Q3 11:41 | 5 | 72 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| CIN | Q3 9:28 | 12 | 79 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| SF | Q3 1:52 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| CIN | Q4 12:59 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 24–34 |
| SF | Q4 6:58 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–34 |
| CIN | Q4 3:49 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 31–41 |
| SF | Q4 2:18 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 38–41 |
| CIN | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 26/33 | 344 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 1 |
| Jamal Robertson | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/25 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 21 | 174 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Corey Dillon | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64