Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.030
- 40.8%Success rate41.7%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.080
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.45CPOE-2.19
- 29.6%Third-down rate35.5%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.87Points / drive1.55
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/30 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 8 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/32 | 157 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Caldwell | 6 | 12 | 53 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.40