2011 · Week 3

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

13·8

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBengals
  • -0.009EPA / play-0.030
  • 40.8%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.080
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.45CPOE-2.19
  • 29.6%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.55
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. CIN are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CIN @ SF31–17CIN
2021 · W14SF @ CIN26–23SF
2019 · W2SF @ CIN41–17SF
2015 · W15CIN @ SF24–14CIN
2007 · W15CIN @ SF13–20SF
2003 · W15SF @ CIN38–41CIN
1999 · W13SF @ CIN30–44CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CIN
CINQ1 15:001176Field goal0–3
SFQ1 8:4446Punt0–3
CINQ1 7:14511Punt0–3
SFQ1 4:55637Punt0–3
CINQ1 0:5938Punt0–3
SFQ2 14:1235Punt0–3
CINQ2 13:08512Punt0–3
SFQ2 10:55710Punt0–3
CINQ2 7:0331Punt0–3
SFQ2 5:50934Punt0–3
CINQ2 1:00210End of half0–3
SFQ3 15:00921Punt0–3
CINQ3 9:52520Punt0–3
SFQ3 7:50853Field goal3–3
CINQ3 3:29413Punt3–3
SFQ3 1:1331Punt3–3
CINQ4 14:10719Punt3–3
SFQ4 10:3915Turnover3–3
CINQ4 10:29411Field goal3–6
SFQ4 9:041072Touchdown10–6
CINQ4 3:5910Turnover10–6
SFQ4 3:543-3Field goal13–6
CINQ4 2:16447Turnover13–6
SFQ4 1:454-15Safety13–8
CINQ4 0:0200Turnover13–8

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3020100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17422.50
Kendall Hunter9262.91
Vernon Davis1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis891140
Michael Crabtree36240
Josh Morgan24170
Kendall Hunter22120
Delanie Walker1290
Frank Gore0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/3215702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson17643.80
Bernard Scott2105.00
Andy Dalton155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Caldwell612530
Jermaine Gresham48510
A.J. Green45290
Donald Lee11110
Brian Leonard1170
Jerome Simpson1460
Cedric Benson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.40