Closing spread
SF -4
Total
44
Model margin
+4.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.179
- 44.4%Success rate51.6%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.103EPA / rush+0.034
- 7.8%Explosive rate13.8%
- +2.09CPOE+4.51
- 38.3%Third-down rate48.1%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 1.91Points / drive2.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/32 | 283 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 12 | 100 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/31 | 365 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 9 | 11 | 149 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 9 | 109 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+4.38