2015 · Week 15

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB A.J. McCarron

24·14

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

41

Model margin

+4.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge map49ers
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.091
  • 45.3%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.150
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.53CPOE-3.50
  • 39.6%Third-down rate30.2%
  • 68.5%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.32
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8CIN @ SF31–17CIN
2021 · W14SF @ CIN26–23SF
2019 · W2SF @ CIN41–17SF
2011 · W3SF @ CIN13–8SF
2007 · W15CIN @ SF13–20SF
2003 · W15SF @ CIN38–41CIN
1999 · W13SF @ CIN30–44CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–SF
SFQ1 15:0047Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:0337Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:28529Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:54650Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 6:2539Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:2034Punt0–0
SFQ1 2:38529Punt0–0
CINQ2 14:5332Punt0–0
SFQ2 13:19415Turnover0–0
CINQ2 12:10512Punt0–0
SFQ2 9:52422Turnover0–0
CINQ2 8:0157Touchdown7–0
SFQ2 5:163-2Punt7–0
CINQ2 3:22536Touchdown14–0
SFQ2 1:1720Turnover20–0
CINQ2 0:58120Touchdown21–0
SFQ2 0:532-4End of half21–0
CINQ3 15:001380Field goal24–0
SFQ3 8:4036Punt24–0
CINQ3 7:18520Turnover24–0
SFQ3 4:50546Touchdown24–7
CINQ3 3:1460Punt24–7
SFQ3 0:0848Punt24–7
CINQ4 14:0430Punt24–7
SFQ4 11:531341Missed field goal24–7
CINQ4 8:063-3Punt24–7
SFQ4 6:101172Touchdown24–14
CINQ4 2:1700Turnover24–14
SFQ4 2:16227Turnover24–14
CINQ4 1:5037Punt24–14
SFQ4 1:25613End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
AJ McCarron15/2119210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard14332.40
Jeremy Hill19311.62
Mohamed Sanu122.00
AJ McCarron221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones46890
A.J. Green13370
Tyler Kroft33311
Giovani Bernard44180
Ryan Hewitt1290
Mohamed Sanu2280
Jeremy Hill0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert30/5029513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Draughn9384.20
Blaine Gabbert2105.00
Travaris Cadet242.00
Kendall Gaskins200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin810741
Kendall Gaskins67520
Blake Bell48430
Quinton Patton35370
Torrey Smith25330
Travaris Cadet46320
Vance McDonald14100
Shaun Draughn1240
Jerome Simpson0100
Bruce Ellington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.20