Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
41
Model margin
+4.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.091
- 45.3%Success rate38.8%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.150
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.53CPOE-3.50
- 39.6%Third-down rate30.2%
- 68.5%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.11Points / drive1.32
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ McCarron | 15/21 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 19 | 31 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 30/50 | 295 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Gaskins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Kendall Gaskins | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.20