Closing spread
CIN -9
Total
42
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.254
- 46.0%Success rate36.7%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.2%
- +5.31CPOE-5.63
- 45.6%Third-down rate31.5%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.86Points / drive0.92
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 19/31 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| DeDe Dorsey | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 21/28 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 29 | 138 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
0.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80