Closing spread
BUF -8
Total
36.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.010
- 38.6%Success rate40.3%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.195
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.4%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.14Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.138
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 23/44 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Montgomery | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 8 | 11 | 90 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 6 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 5 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 15/32 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Bobby Collins | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 2 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.47