1999 · Week 14

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

19·17

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BUF -8

Total

36.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBills
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.010
  • 38.6%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.195
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.14Points / drive1.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.039EPA / play allowed-0.138

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NYG @ BUF9–14BUF
2019 · W2BUF @ NYG28–14BUF
2015 · W4NYG @ BUF24–10NYG
2011 · W6BUF @ NYG24–27NYG
2007 · W16NYG @ BUF38–21NYG
2003 · W13BUF @ NYG24–7BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–BUF
NYGQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:46755Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 9:16751Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 4:25612Punt3–3
NYGQ1 1:4936Punt3–3
BUFQ1 0:213-20Turnover3–3
NYGQ2 14:48619Field goal6–3
BUFQ2 12:09756Missed field goal6–3
NYGQ2 9:04317Turnover6–3
BUFQ2 7:5833Punt6–3
NYGQ2 6:1030Punt6–3
BUFQ2 5:11652Touchdown6–10
NYGQ2 1:511272Touchdown13–10
BUFQ2 0:0300End of half13–10
BUFQ3 15:00727Missed field goal13–10
NYGQ3 10:151157Field goal16–10
BUFQ3 4:2836Punt16–10
NYGQ3 2:481131Turnover16–10
BUFQ4 12:14622Touchdown16–17
NYGQ4 9:34520Punt16–17
BUFQ4 7:0938Punt16–17
NYGQ4 5:3347Punt16–17
BUFQ4 4:42817Turnover on downs16–17
NYGQ4 2:09838Field goal19–17
BUFQ4 0:4050Turnover19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins23/4424011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Montgomery20773.90
Kerry Collins273.50
Tiki Barber461.50
Amani Toomer144.00
Greg Comella100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tiki Barber811900
Ike Hilliard69620
Pete Mitchell511410
Amani Toomer36351
Joe Jurevicius11120
Greg Comella0100
Howard Cross0100
Joe Montgomery0100
David Patten0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie15/3218411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Flutie6254.20
Antowain Smith6193.20
Thurman Thomas8151.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds36550
Andre Reed37400
Thurman Thomas22351
Bobby Collins24200
Peerless Price28160
Kevin R. Williams22100
Sheldon Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.47