Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.123
- 39.7%Success rate41.7%
- -0.140EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.188
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- 31.3%Third-down rate32.9%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.19Points / drive0.93
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. NYG are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:40 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:09 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:30 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 2:58 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 1:46 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q2 14:49 | 1 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 14:32 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q2 9:26 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| BUF | Q2 7:57 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q2 4:07 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q2 2:30 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q2 0:56 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 18 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q3 10:15 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–7 |
| BUF | Q3 9:24 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| NYG | Q3 5:30 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 24–7 |
| BUF | Q3 3:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–7 |
| NYG | Q3 2:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–7 |
| BUF | Q3 1:48 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 24–7 |
| NYG | Q4 14:53 | 10 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 24–7 |
| BUF | Q4 11:33 | 6 | 49 | Missed field goal | 24–7 |
| NYG | Q4 7:38 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 24–7 |
| BUF | Q4 6:54 | 10 | 43 | End of half | 24–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/29 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2/5 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 26 | 113 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/35 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 12 | 20 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.20