Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
49
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.050
- 44.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.64CPOE+1.53
- 30.9%Third-down rate38.3%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.56Points / drive1.84
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. NYG are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/30 | 244 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 121 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nelson | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 1 | 2 | 60 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 10 | 39 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/32 | 292 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 3 |
| D.J. Ware | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 5 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.65