Closing spread
BUF -15.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play+0.097
- 38.2%Success rate48.4%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.205EPA / rush+0.010
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.19CPOE+4.96
- 30.9%Third-down rate49.7%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.09Points / drive2.33
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 24/36 | 200 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 8 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/30 | 169 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 16 | 100 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.38