2023 · Week 6

Final

Giants

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

9·14

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 46°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BUF -15.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBills
  • -0.165EPA / play+0.097
  • 38.2%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.205EPA / rush+0.010
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.19CPOE+4.96
  • 30.9%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.33
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W2BUF @ NYG28–14BUF
2015 · W4NYG @ BUF24–10NYG
2011 · W6BUF @ NYG24–27NYG
2007 · W16NYG @ BUF38–21NYG
2003 · W13BUF @ NYG24–7BUF
1999 · W14NYG @ BUF19–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NYGQ1 14:0337Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:12640Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 9:201141Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 3:19538Punt3–0
NYGQ1 1:293-2Punt3–0
BUFQ2 14:4631Punt3–0
NYGQ2 13:4549Punt3–0
BUFQ2 11:40531Missed field goal3–0
NYGQ2 9:34939Field goal6–0
BUFQ2 5:08729Turnover6–0
NYGQ2 2:23949End of half6–0
NYGQ3 15:00939Punt6–0
BUFQ3 9:521784Touchdown6–7
NYGQ4 14:54874Field goal9–7
BUFQ4 10:351270Touchdown9–14
NYGQ4 3:48713Turnover on downs9–14
BUFQ4 1:4531Missed field goal9–14
NYGQ4 1:251248End of half9–14

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor24/3620000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley24933.90
Tyrod Taylor5244.80
Matt Breida4133.30
Eric Gray122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton46690
Wan'Dale Robinson88620
Darren Waller57430
Jalin Hyatt34210
Saquon Barkley4550
Matt Breida0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/3016921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook14715.10
Latavius Murray12453.80
Josh Allen2115.50
Damien Harris111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs10161000
Gabe Davis34210
Dawson Knox36170
Quintin Morris11151
Khalil Shakir11130
Deonte Harty1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +15.57.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.38