2019 · Week 2

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

28·14

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 79°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapGiants
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.064
  • 41.8%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.129
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.62CPOE-1.92
  • 35.9%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.56
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. NYG are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NYG @ BUF9–14BUF
2015 · W4NYG @ BUF24–10NYG
2011 · W6BUF @ NYG24–27NYG
2007 · W16NYG @ BUF38–21NYG
2003 · W13BUF @ NYG24–7BUF
1999 · W14NYG @ BUF19–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00575Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 12:3633Punt0–7
NYGQ1 10:2235Punt0–7
BUFQ1 9:291075Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 3:4331Punt7–7
BUFQ1 2:391174Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 13:24415Punt14–7
BUFQ2 11:568108Touchdown21–7
NYGQ2 7:301357Missed field goal21–7
BUFQ2 1:4932Punt21–7
NYGQ2 1:15212Turnover21–7
BUFQ2 0:4700End of half21–7
BUFQ3 15:003-2Punt21–7
NYGQ3 13:301026Punt21–7
BUFQ3 7:55513Punt21–7
NYGQ3 5:5837Punt21–7
BUFQ3 4:4937Punt21–7
NYGQ3 3:131276Touchdown21–14
BUFQ4 11:561484Touchdown28–14
NYGQ4 5:53612Turnover on downs28–14
BUFQ4 5:0137Punt28–14
NYGQ4 4:39436Turnover28–14
BUFQ4 3:34519Punt28–14
NYGQ4 0:26348End of half28–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen19/3025310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore19683.61
Devin Singletary6579.51
Josh Allen7213.01
Isaiah McKenzie144.00
Patrick DiMarco111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley44830
John Brown78720
Isaiah McKenzie22401
Dawson Knox14180
Frank Gore22150
Zay Jones13140
Lee Smith1180
Patrick DiMarco1130
Robert Foster0200
Tommy Sweeney0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/4525012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley181075.91
Bennie Fowler12020.00
Eli Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bennie Fowler510510
Evan Engram68480
T.J. Jones34381
Cody Latimer35300
Cody Core35280
Saquon Barkley37280
Russell Shepard23190
Rhett Ellison1180
Wayne Gallman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.80