Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.064
- 41.8%Success rate41.8%
- +0.020EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.129
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.62CPOE-1.92
- 35.9%Third-down rate37.8%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 1.56Points / drive1.56
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. NYG are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/30 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 83 | 0 |
| John Brown | 7 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/45 | 250 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennie Fowler | 5 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.80