2015 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

24·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 60°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBills
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.025
  • 44.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -1.12CPOE+2.97
  • 37.1%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.83
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6NYG @ BUF9–14BUF
2019 · W2BUF @ NYG28–14BUF
2011 · W6BUF @ NYG24–27NYG
2007 · W16NYG @ BUF38–21NYG
2003 · W13BUF @ NYG24–7BUF
1999 · W14NYG @ BUF19–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:31827Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 10:2039Punt3–0
NYGQ1 8:18410Punt3–0
BUFQ1 5:54415Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 4:33629Punt3–3
BUFQ1 1:1010Turnover3–3
NYGQ1 1:02232Touchdown9–3
BUFQ1 0:2534Punt9–3
NYGQ2 14:441151Touchdown16–3
BUFQ2 10:4236Punt16–3
NYGQ2 8:57618Punt16–3
BUFQ2 6:15727Punt16–3
NYGQ2 2:2635Punt16–3
BUFQ2 1:4839Punt16–3
NYGQ2 0:1100End of half16–3
NYGQ3 15:00534Punt16–3
BUFQ3 12:3031Punt16–3
NYGQ3 11:01410Punt16–3
BUFQ3 8:191460Missed field goal16–3
NYGQ3 2:203-1Punt16–3
BUFQ3 0:21752Turnover on downs16–3
NYGQ4 12:0834Punt16–3
BUFQ4 10:35343Touchdown16–10
NYGQ4 9:41572Touchdown24–10
BUFQ4 7:42316Turnover24–10
NYGQ4 6:22814Turnover24–10
BUFQ4 3:411763Turnover on downs24–10
NYGQ4 0:0100End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3521231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings9384.20
Andre Williams11353.20
Shane Vereen5214.20
Eli Manning3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashad Jennings22541
Dwayne Harris56511
Larry Donnell57380
Odell Beckham Jr.512380
Rueben Randle36311
Andre Williams0100
Will Tye0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor28/4227411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Karlos Williams18402.20
Tyrod Taylor6152.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay9131110
Chris Hogan55430
Robert Woods35330
Karlos Williams34301
Percy Harvin38260
Anthony Dixon23200
Chris Gragg11150
MarQueis Gray1120
Marcus Easley0100
Cierre Wood11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.92