Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.025
- 44.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- -1.12CPOE+2.97
- 37.1%Third-down rate38.1%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 2.02Points / drive1.83
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/35 | 212 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Larry Donnell | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 12 | 38 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Andre Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 28/42 | 274 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlos Williams | 18 | 40 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 9 | 13 | 111 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Karlos Williams | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marcus Easley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cierre Wood | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.92